105 Kagay Ave

Effingham, IL 62401

$90,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,155/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $290/mo
• Annual: $3,482/yr
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.82%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#140 in IL, #2,564 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
• Effingham CUSD 40 (town): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #387 of 620 in IL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Effingham County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.6% in Effingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.