105 Kagay Ave · Effingham, IL 62401

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1940 10,019 sqft lot $99/sqft · 29% below area Est $126k · 29% under ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With some TLC this home could be a great starter home. The house needs some updating in flooring, paint and cabinets. It is livable as is so you could stay as you fix it up. Three bedrooms along with front and back enclosed porches. The house sits on . 23 acres. One car detached garage with a dirt floor. Main road access from the front and an alley access from the back. The house has a newer outside central air unit and furnace. The house and garage with one lot they both sit on are what's for sale. There are two lots one west of the house and one east of the garage that are for sale individually or possibly can sell all together.

Key facts

• Alley access
• Main road access
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• MAIN ROAD ACCESS
• ALLEY ACCESS
• NEWER OUTSIDE CENTRAL AIR UNIT
• BIG YARD BEHIND THE GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.6% in Effingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#140 in IL, #2,564 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
• Effingham CUSD 40 (town): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #387 of 620 in IL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $81,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.82%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,490
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -28.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
915 S Glenwood St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (+1)	960 (+5%)	12mo	$110,000	$115	48
609 S 2nd St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (+1)	844 (-8%)	9mo	$120,000	$142	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $3,915
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $27,278
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62401

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,155 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $90,000 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    With some TLC this home could be a great starter home. The house needs some updating in flooring, paint and cabinets. It is livable as is so you could stay as you fix it up. Three bedrooms along with front and back enclosed porches. The house sits on . 23 acres. One car detached garage with a dirt floor. Main road access from the front and an alley access from the back. The house has a newer outside central air unit and furnace. The house and garage with one lot they both sit on are what's for sale. There are two lots one west of the house and one east of the garage that are for sale individually or possibly can sell all together.

17. 2026-04-07
    price $100,000 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    With some TLC this home could be a great starter home. The house needs some updating in flooring, paint and cabinets. It is livable as is so you could stay as you fix it up. Three bedrooms along with front and back enclosed porches. The house sits on . 23 acres. One car detached garage with a dirt floor. Main road access from the front and an alley access from the back. The house has a newer outside central air unit and furnace. The house and garage with one lot they both sit on are what's for sale. There are two lots one west of the house and one east of the garage that are for sale individually or possibly can sell all together.

18. 2026-02-23
    listed $115,000 Active 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    With some TLC this home could be a great starter home. The house needs some updating in flooring, paint and cabinets. It is livable as is so you could stay as you fix it up. Three bedrooms along with front and back enclosed porches. The house sits on . 23 acres. One car detached garage with a dirt floor. Main road access from the front and an alley access from the back. The house has a newer outside central air unit and furnace. The house and garage with one lot they both sit on are what's for sale. There are two lots one west of the house and one east of the garage that are for sale individually or possibly can sell all together.

19. 2026-02-22
    price $115,000
20. 2025-12-16
    price $130,000
21. 2025-10-06
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,108
• − Management: −$1,108
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,179
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$523
• After-tax cash flow: $2,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham CUSD 40
• NCES district ID: 1713560
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,021
• Composite: 19.35/100
• National rank: #8789
• State rank: #387 of 620 in IL

Livability — Effingham

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #2564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Effingham, IL
• City population: 19,371
• Population (ZIP): 19,371

Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,179 people
• By 2030: 33,648 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 32,066 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 29,813 · -12.8%
• By 2075: 24,101 · -29.5%
• By 2100: 17,174 · -49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.0% · R 79.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: -36.0pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+59.2 2016: R+60.5 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+36.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.52%
• Current HPI: 167.267
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-37.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $90,000 CIBR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $100,000 CIBR
• 2026-02-23 Listed $115,000 CIBR
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $115,000 CIBR
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $130,000 CIBR
• 2025-10-06 Listed $145,000 CIBR

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $159 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.