303 N Arbell Rd

Tyrone, OK 73951

$190,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,317 sqft · Built 1892 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,327/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-105/mo
• Annual: $-1,263/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (30.2% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#280 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Tyrone (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #460 of 513 in OK (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tyrone Es (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #711 of 845 statewide, top 87%, 143 students, 0% FRL); Tyrone Hs (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #361 of 447 statewide, top 94%, 82 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Texas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Texas County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.