303 N Arbell Rd · Tyrone, OK 73951

$190,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,317 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1892

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

This fully renovated 1 1/2 story home offers a harmonious blend of modern luxury and timeless charm, set against the backdrop of a picturesque small town. With four bedrooms, two bathrooms, an upstairs loft, new heating and air, and a new roof, this property presents an unparalleled opportunity to live the quintessential American dream in style and sophistication. Nestled within the heart of a quaint small town, this charming home stands as a testament to meticulous renovation and timeless elegance. Situated on two spacious lots, this property offers both privacy and room to roam, presenting a haven of comfort and serenity. Call Tanya Colvin with Leon Tabor Realty today to set up your priva

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Two spacious lots
• Upstairs loft

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• NEW HEATING AND AIR
• NEW ROOF
• TWO SPACIOUS LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#280 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Tyrone (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #460 of 513 in OK (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tyrone Es (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #711 of 845 statewide, top 87%, 143 students, 0% FRL); Tyrone Hs (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #361 of 447 statewide, top 94%, 82 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Texas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Texas County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,679 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $25,834
• Equity at exit: $95,778

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $89,737
• Equity at exit: $156,212

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73951

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $934/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,460

Max offer price $171,413

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-51	+0% $-105	+5% $-159	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-158	+0% $-105	+5% $-53	+10% $0
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-57	base $-105	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-07-22
   soldstatus $182,500
2. 2025-03-07
   status Pending
3. 2024-08-16
   price $190,000
4. 2024-04-20
   listed $190,000 Active
5. 2022-10-17
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $934 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$776/yr (+$65/mo · 83.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$934
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$4,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,123
• After-tax cash flow: $-139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyrone
• NCES district ID: 4030480
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,962
• Composite: 16.72/100
• National rank: #14229
• State rank: #460 of 513 in OK

Livability — Tyrone

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #280
• US rank: #17458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tyrone, OK
• Population (ZIP): 1,240

Population outlook (Texas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,936 people
• By 2030: 23,733 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 25,578 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 27,732 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 32,511 · +41.7%
• By 2100: 35,649 · +55.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 37% Two or more races 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Texas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -70.5pp · 2024: -67.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.7 2020: R+65.4 2016: R+65.2 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Current HPI: 157.5669
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+180.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $182,500 Public Records
• 2025-03-07 Pending — SWKSBOR
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $190,000 SWKSBOR
• 2024-04-20 Listed $190,000 SWKSBOR
• 2022-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $934 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.