2600 Blevins Gap Rd

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$123,600C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,254/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$648
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $176/mo
• Annual: $2,112/yr
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.10%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $34,608

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $124k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $855 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $87k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.