451 Lincoln Trl

Stanford, KY 40484

$119,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $925/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $-91/mo
• Annual: $-1,096/yr
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (22.2% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#226 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln County (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #131 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Stanford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.