451 Lincoln Trl · Stanford, KY 40484

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1979 0.39 ac lot $121/sqft · 37% below area Est $189k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable living with room to spread out! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home sits on nearly 0.4 acres, offering 980 square feet of cozy living space. The home features a practical layout with a combined kitchen and living area, a metal roof for longevity, and a storage shed for extra space. Enjoy the large yard with endless possibilities - perfect for outdoor activities or future improvements.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Large yard
• Storage shed

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• STORAGE SHED
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Stanford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#226 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln County (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #131 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $92,535 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,288
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -37.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-25,088
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-29,281
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40484

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $925 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $105,781

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-50	+0% $-91	+5% $-132	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-128	+0% $-91	+5% $-55	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-61	base $-91	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-03-18
    listed $119,000 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Affordable living with room to spread out! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home sits on nearly 0.4 acres, offering 980 square feet of cozy living space. The home features a practical layout with a combined kitchen and living area, a metal roof for longevity, and a storage shed for extra space. Enjoy the large yard with endless possibilities - perfect for outdoor activities or future improvements.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$888
• − Management: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$3,180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$763
• After-tax cash flow: $-333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County
• NCES district ID: 2103480
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $35,356
• Composite: 22.68/100
• National rank: #8042
• State rank: #131 of 165 in KY

Livability — Stanford

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #11103

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,517

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,293 people
• By 2030: 22,392 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 20,336 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 18,016 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 12,976 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 8,446 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.2) · D 18.9% · R 80.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -38.5pp · 2024: -61.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.2 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+57.3 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+38.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.15%
• Current HPI: 206.5336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $119,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $216 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.