525 N Hill Rd

Tyler, TX 75706

$169,990C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,398/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-17/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $47,597

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-17/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Winona ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #539 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.