525 N Hill Rd · Tyler, TX 75706

$169,990

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2021 0.48 ac lot $142/sqft · 26% below area Est $231k · 26% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute as a button 1 bedroom, 1 bath barn-style home with endless potential! Featuring an open concept layout, this home is perfect for entertaining. The kitchen offers a spacious walk-in pantry for ample storage. Bedroom includes additional plumbing, providing an excellent opportunity to add a second bathroom. Finish out the home to suit your personal style and make it truly your own. Enjoy peaceful country living while still being conveniently located near I-20 and town amenities. Relax on the front or back porch and take in the serene surroundings. (Lenders are available for conventional and FHA RENOVATION loans on this home) Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Front or back porch
• Additional plumbing
• Open concept layout

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN PANTRY
• ADDITIONAL PLUMBING
• FRONT OR BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-17/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Winona ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #539 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,810 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,892
• List price: $169,990
• Delta: -26.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $56,296
• Equity at exit: $114,660

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $164,012
• Equity at exit: $215,017

Cash invested: $47,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75706

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $169,735

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $47	+0% $-1	+5% $-50	+10% $-98
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-57	+0% $-1	+5% $54	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $42	base $-1	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,498
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,990 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,990 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,990 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,990 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,990 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,990 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,990 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,990 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,990 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,990 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,990 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,990 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,990 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,990 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,990 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    price $169,990 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Cute as a button 1 bedroom, 1 bath barn-style home with endless potential! Featuring an open concept layout, this home is perfect for entertaining. The kitchen offers a spacious walk-in pantry for ample storage. Bedroom includes additional plumbing, providing an excellent opportunity to add a second bathroom. Finish out the home to suit your personal style and make it truly your own. Enjoy peaceful country living while still being conveniently located near I-20 and town amenities. Relax on the front or back porch and take in the serene surroundings. (Lenders are available for conventional and FHA RENOVATION loans on this home) Schedule your private showing today!

17. 2026-04-01
    listed $175,000 Active 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Cute as a button 1 bedroom, 1 bath barn-style home with endless potential! Featuring an open concept layout, this home is perfect for entertaining. The kitchen offers a spacious walk-in pantry for ample storage. Bedroom includes additional plumbing, providing an excellent opportunity to add a second bathroom. Finish out the home to suit your personal style and make it truly your own. Enjoy peaceful country living while still being conveniently located near I-20 and town amenities. Relax on the front or back porch and take in the serene surroundings. (Lenders are available for conventional and FHA RENOVATION loans on this home) Schedule your private showing today!

18. 2000-06-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,724 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,387/yr (+$116/mo · 80.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,522
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,948
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$708
• After-tax cash flow: $690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winona ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846230
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,761
• Composite: 28.98/100
• National rank: #6624
• State rank: #539 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 127,842
• Population (ZIP): 10,975

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 40% Black 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 31% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.72%
• Current HPI: 234.9412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $169,990 GTAR
• 2026-04-01 Listed $175,000 GTAR
• 2000-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,724 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.