31624 Angel Aura Dr

French Valley, CA 92596

$561,190D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,608/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,943
• Tax + insurance: −$935
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$758
• Net cashflow: $-1,028/mo
• Annual: $-12,334/yr
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.85%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $157,133

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $561k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $412k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (35.7% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $361k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Murrieta Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #255 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lisa J. Mails Elementary (1,019 students, 37% FRL); Dorothy Mcelhinney Middle (1,396 students, 44% FRL); Vista Murrieta High (3,493 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$96k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.4% in French Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.