31624 Angel Aura Dr · French Valley, CA 92596

$561,190

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $270/sqft · 8% below area Est $610k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 12 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $561k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $412k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (35.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $361k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.4% in French Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Murrieta Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #255 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lisa J. Mails Elementary (1,019 students, 37% FRL); Dorothy Mcelhinney Middle (1,396 students, 44% FRL); Vista Murrieta High (3,493 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$96k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $360,818 (35.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.85%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $609,904
• List price: $561,190
• Delta: -7.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31900 Via Santa Elena	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,081 (0%)	2mo	$625,000	$300	77
35636 Loggins Ct	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,026 (-3%)	1mo	$640,000	$316	72
31421 Darlington Oak	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,027 (-2%)	4mo	$685,000	$338	70
34699 Silky Dogwood	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,117 (+2%)	4mo	$645,000	$305	70
34641 Kooden Rd	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,945 (-6%)	0mo	$769,000	$395	64
31106 Pepperbush	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,027 (-2%)	4mo	$749,000	$370	60
30833 Prairie Sun	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,214 (+6%)	4mo	$672,000	$304	50
31404 Tulette Ln	0.60mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,296 (+10%)	0mo	$650,000	$283	49
35594 Cloche Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (-11%)	4mo	$560,000	$302	47
35672 Loggins Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (-11%)	2mo	$589,000	$317	46
34751 Ribbon Grass Way	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,319 (+12%)	2mo	$695,000	$300	44
34524 Velvetleaf	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,293 (+10%)	1mo	$685,000	$299	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $229,658
• Equity at exit: $505,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $708,959
• Equity at exit: $1,090,269

Cash invested: $157,133 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 47 active · 48 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.9 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $650,000 ($292/sqft)
• Median days on market: 48 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,608 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$701 /mo · $8,418/yr
• Insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$758
• Net cashflow: $-1,028

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,909

Max offer price $412,466

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-640	-5% $-834	+0% $-1,028	+5% $-1,222	+10% $-1,416
Rent	-10% $-1,313	-5% $-1,170	+0% $-1,028	+5% $-885	+10% $-743
Rate	-1.0pp $-745	-0.5pp $-885	base $-1,028	+0.5pp $-1,173	+1.0pp $-1,321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $140,298
• Closing costs: $16,836
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31612 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,100	$1.82	0d	1	0.01mi
31612 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,100	$1.82	5d	1	0.01mi
31629 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	3.0	1711	$3,099	$1.81	162d	1	0.03mi
31647 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1711	$3,195	$1.87	157d	1	0.06mi
31404 Lolite Dr Menifee, CA	4.0	3.0	2080	$3,349	$1.61	104d	1	0.12mi
31404 Lolite Dr Menifee, CA	4.0	3.0	2080	$3,199	$1.54	31d	1	0.12mi
31649 Cobalite Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	1856	$2,999	$1.62	37d	1	0.13mi
31649 Cobalite Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	1856	$3,200	$1.72	83d	1	0.13mi
35350 Marabella Ct Unit 35350 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,300	$1.71	134d	1	0.30mi
31416 Boston Ivy Cir Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1945	$3,675	$1.89	47d	1	0.41mi
31029 Branding Iron Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	2789	$3,595	$1.29	29d	1	0.48mi
35631 Date Palm St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2565	$3,400	$1.33	63d	1	0.53mi
35186 Orchid Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	2596	$3,450	$1.33	24d	1	0.62mi
35186 Orchid Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	2596	$3,350	$1.29	0d	1	0.62mi
34719 Myoporum Ln Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2984	$3,895	$1.31	15d	1	0.70mi
35222 Azalea Ln Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2784	$3,900	$1.40	119d	1	0.73mi
35847 Gerard Dou St Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,985	$1.75	75d	1	0.73mi
34715 Ribbon Grass Way Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2319	$3,800	$1.64	138d	1	0.74mi
34715 Ribbon Grass Way Menifee, CA	4.0	3.0	2319	$3,800	$1.64	127d	1	0.74mi
35740 Coral Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1900	$3,500	$1.84	94d	1	0.81mi
32180 Yosemite St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2660	$3,395	$1.28	63d	1	0.82mi
31699 Fille Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,950	$1.61	3d	1	0.90mi
30770 Nature Rd Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.0	2708	$3,525	$1.30	105d	1	0.92mi
35226 Heritage Pointe Dr Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.5	2853	$4,500	$1.58	22d	1	0.93mi
34495 Agave Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,000	$0.71	2d	1	0.93mi
36026 Kiel Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	2366	$3,100	$1.31	109d	1	0.95mi
34495 Agave Dr Bldg 24 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,645	$1.89	165d	1	0.96mi
34495 Agave Dr #20106 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,050	$2.18	159d	1	0.96mi
30527 Prairie Sun Way Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2500	$3,395	$1.36	133d	1	0.96mi
30777 Palette Rd Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.5	2720	$3,850	$1.42	99d	1	0.97mi
30777 Palette Rd Menifee, CA	4.0	2.5	2720	$3,850	$1.42	127d	1	0.97mi
31719 Poppy St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2708	$3,400	$1.26	10d	1	1.00mi
36155 Bergen St Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,950	$1.98	49d	1	1.00mi
36073 Arras Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2877	$3,450	$1.20	10d	1	1.03mi
34580 Sourwood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2800	$3,200	$1.14	184d	1	1.04mi
32372 Safflower St Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2913	$3,900	$1.34	94d	1	1.04mi
36168 Leeds St Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	2064	$3,150	$1.53	134d	1	1.06mi
32561 Cherokee Rose St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2998	$3,595	$1.20	10d	1	1.07mi
32561 Cherokee Rose St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2998	$3,595	$1.20	75d	1	1.07mi
34495 Agave Dr #24111 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,895	$1.73	37d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $561,190 Active 341-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,435
• − Property taxes: −$8,418
• − Insurance: −$2,806
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,464
• − Management: −$3,464
• − Depreciation: −$16,326
• Taxable loss: −$22,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,427
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers ample space and a modern design, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lisa J. Mails Elementary Middle Dorothy Mcelhinney Middle High Vista Murrieta High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murrieta Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600029
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,615
• Composite: 53.42/100
• National rank: #3152
• State rank: #255 of 1400 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,664,475 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B