1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
416 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Manufactured
· Active
· 85 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,120/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$681
Tax + insurance
−$216
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$235
Net cashflow
$-13/mo
Annual
$-152/yr
Cap rate
6.18%
Cash-on-cash
-0.42%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$36,372
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-152/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (1.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (13.8% below list).
It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $112k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3SD8KZ8WNW4M95
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29