433 Obe Kirk Loop

Mosheim, TN 37810

$79,909B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1981 · Other · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $959/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $292/mo
• Annual: $3,502/yr
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.65%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $22,375

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($959 rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#314 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Greene County (rural): math 27% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #83 of 139 in TN (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 333 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $80k implies a 539% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.3% in Mosheim — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.