433 Obe Kirk Loop · Mosheim, TN 37810

$79,909

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Other · 21 Days on market

Built 1981 1.03 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

As-is Great investment opportunity! Property features scenic mountain views and includes a mobile home in need of significant repair. Perfect for renovation, rental potential, or a new build.

Key facts

• Rental potential
• New build
• Mobile home

Tags

• SCENIC MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• MOBILE HOME
• RENOVATION
• RENTAL POTENTIAL
• NEW BUILD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached property; 1.03-acre lot
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Other construction materials; Building area reported as 840 (owner provided)
• Exterior features: Storage structure on property; Mountain view

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Other kitchen appliance(s)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Propane heating; Electric heating; Cooling system (other)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($959 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.3% in Mosheim — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#314 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Greene County (rural): math 27% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #83 of 139 in TN (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 333 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $80k implies a 539% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,710 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.65%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $48,140
• Equity at exit: $57,170

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $125,807
• Equity at exit: $110,263

Cash invested: $22,375 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37810

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $959 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $160/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $589

Max offer price $79,909

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,977
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,909 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,909 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,909 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,909 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,909 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,909 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $79,909 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,990 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,990 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $79,990 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,999 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,999 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,999 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,999 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    price $79,999
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $99,990 Active
17. 2004-11-15
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $160 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 254.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$160
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$921
• − Management: −$921
• − Depreciation: −$2,325
• Taxable income: $2,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$553
• After-tax cash flow: $2,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County
• NCES district ID: 4701470
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,517
• Composite: 21.3/100
• National rank: #8388
• State rank: #83 of 139 in TN

Livability — Mosheim

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #21396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing B Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,407
• Population (ZIP): 1,991

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,624 people
• By 2030: 68,114 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 66,167 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 63,038 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 55,274 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 45,527 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.7) · D 16.6% · R 82.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -65.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.7 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+61.0 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.34%
• Current HPI: 274.4513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+540.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $79,999 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $99,990 Knoxville MLS
• 2004-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $160 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.