3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,156 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,991/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,196
Tax + insurance
−$380
HOA
−$42
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$418
Net cashflow
$-45/mo
Annual
$-539/yr
Cap rate
6.06%
Cash-on-cash
-0.84%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$63,837
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-539/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (2.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (12.7% below list).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $199k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,124 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Willett El (725 students, 32% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2204 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.9% in Talty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3SJGM591X6FHJF
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29