TBD Ledbetter Holw

Theodosia, MO 65761

$129,900D-

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 640 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 178 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $777/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $-284/mo
• Annual: $-3,405/yr
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.36%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (40.2% below list).
• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#649 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lutie R-VI (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #510 of 535 in MO (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP.
• Ozark County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.1% in Theodosia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.