TBD Ledbetter Holw · Theodosia, MO 65761

$129,900

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily · 178 Days on market

Built 2008 16 ac lot $203/sqft · 21% below area Est $164k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handmade Log Home with trees off the property on 16.4 acres. 220-volt electric, well water, wood stove for heating. Open concept with 2 lofts for extra space. Deeded restriction - No mobile homes may be placed on the property. Appliances include - refrigerator, microwave, oven/range.

Key facts

• Handmade log home
• 16.4 acres
• 220 volt electric

Tags

• HANDMADE LOG HOME
• 16.4 ACRES
• 220 VOLT ELECTRIC
• WELL WATER
• WOOD STOVE
• OPEN CONCEPT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (40.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $78k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.1% in Theodosia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#649 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lutie R-VI (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #510 of 535 in MO (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Ozark County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,715 (40.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.36%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,500
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -21.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $23,440
• Equity at exit: $85,912

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $82,191
• Equity at exit: $159,605

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65761

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $88,839

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-02-08
    status Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Handmade Log Home with trees off the property on 16.4 acres. 220-volt electric, well water, wood stove for heating. Open concept with 2 lofts for extra space. Deeded restriction - No mobile homes may be placed on the property. Appliances include - refrigerator, microwave, oven/range.

16. 2026-01-19
    status Pending 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Handmade Log Home with trees off the property on 16.4 acres. 220-volt electric, well water, wood stove for heating. Open concept with 2 lofts for extra space. Deeded restriction - No mobile homes may be placed on the property. Appliances include - refrigerator, microwave, oven/range.

17. 2025-12-03
    listed $129,900 Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Handmade Log Home with trees off the property on 16.4 acres. 220-volt electric, well water, wood stove for heating. Open concept with 2 lofts for extra space. Deeded restriction - No mobile homes may be placed on the property. Appliances include - refrigerator, microwave, oven/range.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$746
• − Management: −$746
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$5,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,397
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lutie R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2923400
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $35,359
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #13904
• State rank: #510 of 535 in MO

Livability — Theodosia

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #21869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,383

Population outlook (Ozark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,561 people
• By 2030: 8,040 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 7,069 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,310 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 5,095 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 4,112 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ozark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.6% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.2pp toward R · 2008: -26.8pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.1 2016: R+64.8 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+26.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.51%
• Current HPI: 223.1575
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Listed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid