2401 S Jefferson St

Bay City, MI 48708

$149,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,442 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,254/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $407/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($407/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (15.8% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $125k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Macgregor Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,217 of 1,397 statewide, top 88%, 313 students, 92% FRL); Handy Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #387 of 493 statewide, top 78%, 685 students, 79% FRL); Bay City Central High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #372 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 1,033 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 44% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $149k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.