591 Cape Horn Rd

Jefferson, NY 12167

$325,000C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,348 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,408/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $662/mo
• Annual: $7,949/yr
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #723 of 755 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Schoharie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Schoharie County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $325k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.