591 Cape Horn Rd · Jefferson, NY 12167

$325,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1984 4.15 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

"This lovely home is perched on a knoll, offering sweeping long-range views and a peaceful setting. The house features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a partially finished basement. Outside, you'll find a large yard, a garden, and a spacious deck perfect for enjoying the scenery. A convenient carport provides covered parking. "

Key facts

• Garden
• Long-range views
• Large yard

Tags

• LONG-RANGE VIEWS
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• LARGE YARD
• GARDEN
• SPACIOUS DECK
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Poured foundation; Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Shed(s) / storage; Rectangular, rural lot (approx. 4.15 acres, dimensions 355 x 555)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Ceiling fan(s); Galley kitchen; Main level primary; Partially finished basement; Basement present
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #723 of 755 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Schoharie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Schoharie County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $325k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $325,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $120,870
• Equity at exit: $188,274

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $327,063
• Equity at exit: $328,378

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12167

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,280/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,569

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $846	-5% $754	+0% $662	+5% $570	+10% $478
Rent	-10% $393	-5% $528	+0% $662	+5% $797	+10% $932
Rate	-1.0pp $826	-0.5pp $745	base $662	+0.5pp $578	+1.0pp $493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 332-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $325,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,886 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,606/yr (+$134/mo · 70.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,280
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,272
• − Management: −$3,272
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $2,786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$669
• After-tax cash flow: $7,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615720
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,778
• Composite: 29.11/100
• National rank: #11892
• State rank: #723 of 755 in NY

Livability — Jefferson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,257

Population outlook (Schoharie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,080 people
• By 2030: 27,417 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 23,835 · -18.0%
• By 2050: 20,482 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 14,323 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 9,636 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schoharie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.5) · D 34.7% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.3pp · 2024: -30.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.5 2020: R+29.0 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+14.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Current HPI: 368.4492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+247.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $325,000 UNYREIS
• 2009-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,280 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.