15 Fulton Ave #2

Jersey City, NJ 07305-4111

$645,000D-

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 2024 · Townhouse · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,774/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,382
• Tax + insurance: −$1,075
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$792
• Net cashflow: $-1,476/mo
• Annual: $-17,715/yr
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.81%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $180,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $645k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $431k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $377k (41.5% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($587k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $377k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in NJ, #2,955 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Jersey City Public Schools (urban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 472 in NJ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Whitney M. Young Jr. School (math 0% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,288 of 1,303 statewide, top 99%, 655 students, 71% FRL); Academy I (math 60% / reading 76%, grade A-, #14 of 431 statewide, top 3%, 403 students, 46% FRL); Henry Snyder High School (math 4% / reading 31%, grade F, #369 of 399 statewide, top 93%, 849 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.1% in Jersey City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.