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15 FULTON Ave #2
F Composite 33.29
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +12.9/15.0
  • Cash flow +5.0/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.8/5.0
  • Livability +3.9/5.0
  • Schools +3.1/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.9/5.0
  • 1% rule +0.8/10.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$625,000

15 FULTON Ave #2 · Jersey City, NJ 07305
5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · Townhouse · 106 Days on market
Excellent condition $312/sqft · 12% below area Est $711k · 12% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this new construction condo duplex offering almost 2000 sqft. of modern living space. The kitchen is a chef's dream, complete with two stoves and sinks. Head upstairs to find five generously sized bedrooms, three full baths, and a large laundry room with sink for added convenience. This home features two primary suites, each with its own private ensuite bath. One of the bedrooms even boasts a private balcony overlooking the backyard. And just when you think it can't get any better... take the stairs up to your private rooftop terrace with seasonal views of the Statue of Liberty! Ideally located in Jersey City, this home offers convenient access to public transportation, NJ Turnpike, I-78, and Liberty State Park.

Key facts

  • New construction
  • Chef's dream kitchen
  • Private balcony

Tags

NEW CONSTRUCTIONCHEF'S DREAM KITCHENTWO PRIMARY SUITESPRIVATE BALCONYPRIVATE ROOFTOP TERRACESEASONAL VIEWS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $625k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $412k (34.1% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (42.3% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $361k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.1% in Jersey City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in NJ, #2,955 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
  • Jersey City Public Schools (urban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 472 in NJ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Whitney M. Young Jr. School (math 0% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,288 of 1,303 statewide, top 99%, 655 students, 71% FRL); Academy I (math 60% / reading 76%, grade A-, #14 of 431 statewide, top 3%, 403 students, 46% FRL); Henry Snyder High School (math 4% / reading 31%, grade F, #369 of 399 statewide, top 93%, 849 students, 62% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 89d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • At $3,606/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($569k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Recommended offer $360,558 (42.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.58%
Cap rate
3.47%
Cash-on-cash
-10.09%
DSCR
0.55
GRM
14.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$710,838
List price
$625,000
Delta
-12.08%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
14 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
19 EASTERN Pkwy #1 0.23mi 4/2.5 (-1) 2,000 (0%) 3mo $690,000 $345 78
206 FULTON Ave #2 0.44mi 5/3.5 2,300 (+15%) 13mo $650,000 $283 44
91 PEARSALL Ave Unit A 0.79mi 5/3.5 2,144 (+7%) 15mo $825,000 $385 40
119 VAN HORNE St Unit A 1.05mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,200 (+10%) 7mo $745,000 $339 36
222 CLERK St #1 0.83mi 4/2.5 (-1) 2,100 (+5%) 17mo $655,000 $312 33
98 VAN HORNE St #1 1.00mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,200 (+10%) 12mo $885,000 $402 31
169 RANDOLPH Ave #2 0.79mi 4/2.5 (-1) 2,195 (+10%) 14mo $880,000 $401 28
91 PEARSALL Ave #2 0.79mi 4/2.5 (-1) 1,664 (-17%) 14mo $625,000 $376 19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-36.0%
Equity multiple
-0.14×
Total profit
$-199,874
Equity at exit
$93,190
10-year hold
IRR
-59.3%
Equity multiple
-0.80×
Total profit
$-314,298
Equity at exit
$54,039

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (CITY)
6 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State New Jersey
21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
County
— inherits STATE
City Jersey City
6 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34
Rent Control Ordinance covers buildings 4+ units pre-1986.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
2 active · 2 under contract
Months of supply
12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$699,000 ($383/sqft)
Median days on market
24 d
This list price
lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking
-7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 07305

Rents YoY
1.6%
Active inventory
394
Price-to-rent
14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$3,606 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$3,278
Tax est. 1.5%
$781 /mo · $9,375/yr
Insurance
$260
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$757
Net cashflow
$-1,471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,467
Max offer price $412,169
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-1,039 -5% $-1,255 +0% $-1,471 +5% $-1,687 +10% $-1,903
Rent -10% $-1,756 -5% $-1,613 +0% $-1,471 +5% $-1,328 +10% $-1,186
Rate -1.0pp $-1,156 -0.5pp $-1,312 base $-1,471 +0.5pp $-1,633 +1.0pp $-1,798

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$156,250
Closing costs
$18,750
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 21 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
48 Dwight St Unit 2 Jersey City, NJ 4.0 2.0 1500 $2,850 $1.90 18d 1 0.13mi
48 Dwight St Unit 2 Jersey City, NJ 4.0 2.0 1500 $3,100 $2.07 120d 1 0.13mi
43 Stegman St Jersey City, NJ 4.0 3.0 1500 $3,800 $2.53 120d 1 0.14mi
22 Wegman Ct Jersey City, NJ 4.0 1.5 2700 $4,000 $1.48 120d 1 0.18mi
144 Fulton Ave Unit A Jersey City, NJ 4.0 2.5 2800 $3,600 $1.29 117d 1 0.31mi
144 Fulton Ave Unit First Jersey City, NJ 4.0 2.5 2800 $3,350 $1.20 83d 1 0.31mi
190 Dwight St Jersey City, NJ 4.0 2.0 1950 $2,950 $1.51 98d 1 0.39mi
312 Garfield Ave #2 Jersey City, NJ 4.0 2.5 2400 $4,500 $1.88 88d 1 0.57mi
312 Garfield Ave #2 Jersey City, NJ 4.0 2.5 2400 $4,600 $1.92 120d 1 0.57mi
210 Wilkinson Ave Unit B Jersey City, NJ 4.0 1.0 1400 $2,500 $1.79 7d 1 0.59mi
156 Clerk St Apt 2 Jersey City, NJ 4.0 1.0 1500 $2,650 $1.77 10d 1 0.69mi
219 Clerk St #2 Jersey City, NJ 4.0 3.0 2300 $4,100 $1.78 18d 1 0.82mi
124 Winfield Ave Unit 1 Jersey City, NJ 5.0 3.0 2000 $3,350 $1.68 117d 1 0.84mi
124 Winfield Ave Unit 1 Jersey City, NJ 5.0 3.0 2000 $3,300 $1.65 101d 1 0.84mi
396 Cator Ave Unit 1 Jersey City, NJ 4.0 2.5 2200 $3,500 $1.59 120d 1 0.91mi
102 Shearwater Ct E #57 Jersey City, NJ 4.0 3.0 3000 $8,500 $2.83 120d 1 1.09mi
408 W Side Ave Jersey City, NJ 4.0 1.0 1850 $2,450 $1.32 12d 1 1.10mi
408 W Side Ave #2 Jersey City, NJ 4.0 1.0 1850 $2,600 $1.41 50d 1 1.10mi
300 Communipaw Ave Jersey City, NJ 2.0–4.0 2.0 1427 $5,000 $3.50 24d 3 1.29mi
300 Communipaw Ave Jersey City, NJ 3.0–4.0 2.0 1427 $5,000 $3.50 20d 2 1.29mi
29 Belmont Ave #2 Jersey City, NJ 4.0 2.5 1500 $3,900 $2.60 7d 1 1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Personal property excluded from sale
Financial info
Taxes listed (not included as financial detail in description)
HOA & community
Pets allowed

Exterior

Parking
No parking
Security
Intercom
Utilities
Fixtures and appliances included
Home design
Property with terrace and private rooftopLot number 28
Construction
Aluminum/vinyl and brick construction
Exterior features
Aluminum/vinyl and brick exteriorPrivate rooftopTerraceNear shopping, bus, parks, and schoolsNew York view

Interior

Kitchen
Single kitchenIncludes dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator, gas oven/range
Bedrooms
5 bedrooms
Flooring
Hardwood floors
Bathrooms
4 bathrooms (3 full, 1 half)
Heating & cooling
Central air conditioningHot air heating
Interior features
DishwasherMicrowaveRefrigeratorWasher/DryerGas oven/rangeCentral A/CHot air heatingIntercomTerraceHardwood floorPrivate rooftop
Laundry & utility
Washer and dryer included

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    days on market $625,000 Active 106 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $625,000 Active 105 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $625,000 Active 104 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $625,000 Active 103 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $625,000 Active 102 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on market $625,000 Active 101 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $625,000 Active 100 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $625,000 Active 99 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $625,000 Active 98 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $625,000 Active 97 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $625,000 Active 96 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $625,000 Active 95 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $625,000 Active 94 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $625,000 Active 88 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $625,000 Active 87 DOM
  16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $625,000 Active 85 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $625,000 Active 83 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $625,000 Active 81 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $625,000 Active 80 DOM
  20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $625,000 Active 79 DOM
  21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $625,000 Active 78 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $625,000 Active 77 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $625,000 Active 76 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $625,000 Active 75 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $625,000 Active 74 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $625,000 Active 73 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $625,000 Active 72 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $625,000 Active 71 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $625,000 Active 70 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $625,000 Active 69 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $625,000 Active 68 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $625,000 Active 67 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $625,000 Active 66 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $625,000 Active 65 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $625,000 Active 64 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $625,000 Active 63 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $625,000 Active 62 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $625,000 Active 61 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $625,000 Active 60 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $625,000 Active 58 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    pricedays on market $625,000 Active 57 DOM
  42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $635,000 Active 56 DOM
  43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $635,000 Active 55 DOM
  44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $635,000 Active 52 DOM
  45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $635,000 Active 49 DOM
  46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $635,000 Active 47 DOM
  47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $635,000 Active 45 DOM
  48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $635,000 Active 44 DOM
  49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $635,000 Active 43 DOM
  50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $635,000 Active 42 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$43,267
− Mortgage interest
−$35,010
− Property taxes
−$9,375
− Insurance
−$3,125
− Repairs & maintenance
−$3,461
− Management
−$3,461
− Depreciation
−$18,182
Taxable loss
−$29,347
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$7,043
After-tax cash flow
$-10,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern, move-in-ready multi-family home offers spacious living areas, a chef's kitchen, and five bedrooms with en-suite bathrooms. The location and condition make it an excellent investment.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances would enhance the kitchen's appeal
  • Both Landscaping — Enhanced curb appeal and increased property value
  • Both Window treatments — Improved privacy and aesthetic appeal
F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whitney M. Young Jr. School F NJ #1,288/1,303 Nat'l #40,440/41,679 Middle Academy I A- NJ #14/431 Nat'l #970/14,009 High Henry Snyder High School F NJ #369/399 Nat'l #14,801/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Jersey City Public Schools
NCES district ID
3407830
Math proficiency
16% ▼ -17.00%
Reading proficiency
38% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income
$58,431
Composite
24.43/100
National rank
#7678
State rank
#369 of 472 in NJ
B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Jersey City

Score
77/100
State rank
#116
US rank
#2955

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Jersey City, NJ
County
Hudson County · 771,834 people
City population
294,078
Metro
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
Population (ZIP)
72,161
Household income
$76,527
Rent vs Own
60.0% rent · 40.0% own
Severe rent burden
10% of renters

Population outlook (Hudson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
771,834 people
By 2030
818,028 · +6.0%
By 2040
907,866 · +17.6%
By 2050
994,480 · +28.8%
By 2075
1,163,301 · +50.7%
By 2100
1,254,703 · +62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
Race & ethnicity
Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 15% Two or more races 13% White 12%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 9%
Common ancestry
Swedish 1% Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
33% · Canada, China, Jamaica
Languages at home
58% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 7% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hudson

2024 margin
Strong D (+28.1) · D 62.6% · R 34.6% · Other 2.8%
2008→2024 swing
-18.7pp toward R · 2008: 46.7pp · 2024: 28.1pp
All cycles
2024: D+28.1 2020: D+46.2 2016: D+51.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+46.7

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+16182.1% since first listed
5 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-08 Price Changed $635,000 HCMLS
  • 2026-06-09 Listed $645,000 GSMLS
  • 2026-06-09 Listed $645,000 HCMLS
  • 2025-04-29 Rental Removed $3,900 HCMLS
  • 2025-04-08 Listed for Rent $3,900 HCMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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