946 Highland Ave

Tonawanda Town, NY 14223

$264,900D

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · Built 1951 · Townhouse · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,419/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax + insurance: −$492
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $30/mo
• Annual: $358/yr
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $74,172

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($358/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (8.7% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $242k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ben Franklin Elementary School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 459 students, 58% FRL); Ben Franklin Middle School (math 26% / reading 37%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 626 students, 47% FRL); Kenmore East Senior High School (math 73% / reading 47%, grade C+, #850 of 1,100 statewide, top 77%, 1,127 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $265k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.