946 Highland Ave · Tonawanda Town, NY 14223

$264,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1951 7,729 sqft lot Est $285k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DEMAND 3/3 TONAWANDA TWP DUPLEX WITH EACH UNIT FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS, 1 FULL BATH, SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM AND EAT-IN KITCHEN. UPDATED TEAR OFF 30 YR ARCHITECTURAL ROOF (2105), UPDATED ELECTRIC, HWT’S AND HARDWOOD FLOORS. SEPARATE/PRIVATE INSULATED BASEMENTS AND EXTENDED DRIVEWAY FOR ADDITIONAL PARKING. PERFECT FOR OWNER OCCUPY OR INVESTOR WITH ONE SIDE VACANT AND THE OTHER HAVING A TENANT WITH YEAR LEASE. CLOSE TO PARK, SCHOOL AND ALL AMENITIES.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Side by side duplex
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• SIDE BY SIDE DUPLEX
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($358/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $265k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $241,878 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,664
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
938 Highland Ave	0.01mi	6/2.0	1,636 (0%)	1mo	$285,000	$174	99
807 Highland Ave	0.26mi	6/2.0	1,636 (0%)	2mo	$285,000	$174	86
914 Highland Ave	0.06mi	6/2.0	1,636 (0%)	16mo	$239,555	$146	84
858 Highland Ave	0.16mi	6/2.0	1,636 (0%)	11mo	$255,000	$156	83
758 Highland Ave	0.35mi	6/2.0	1,636 (0%)	7mo	$298,500	$182	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-40,959
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-32,947
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14223

• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,578/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,381

Max offer price $264,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $105	+0% $30	+5% $-45	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-66	+0% $30	+5% $125	+10% $221
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $97	base $30	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4098 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.5	2108	$2,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.03mi
64 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	1.5	1512	$2,700	$1.79	45d	1	1.35mi
64 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	1.5	1512	$2,500	$1.65	3d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $264,900 Active
3. 2017-11-10
   soldstatus $125,000 Closed Sale or Rented 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   DEMAND 3/3 TONAWANDA TWP DUPLEX WITH EACH UNIT FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS, 1 FULL BATH, SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM AND EAT-IN KITCHEN. UPDATED TEAR OFF 30 YR ARCHITECTURAL ROOF (2105), UPDATED ELECTRIC, HWT’S AND HARDWOOD FLOORS. SEPARATE/PRIVATE INSULATED BASEMENTS AND EXTENDED DRIVEWAY FOR ADDITIONAL PARKING. PERFECT FOR OWNER OCCUPY OR INVESTOR WITH ONE SIDE VACANT AND THE OTHER HAVING A TENANT WITH YEAR LEASE. CLOSE TO PARK, SCHOOL AND ALL AMENITIES.

4. 2017-11-03
   soldstatus $125,000
5. 2017-08-23
   status Pending Sale 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   DEMAND 3/3 TONAWANDA TWP DUPLEX WITH EACH UNIT FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS, 1 FULL BATH, SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM AND EAT-IN KITCHEN. UPDATED TEAR OFF 30 YR ARCHITECTURAL ROOF (2105), UPDATED ELECTRIC, HWT’S AND HARDWOOD FLOORS. SEPARATE/PRIVATE INSULATED BASEMENTS AND EXTENDED DRIVEWAY FOR ADDITIONAL PARKING. PERFECT FOR OWNER OCCUPY OR INVESTOR WITH ONE SIDE VACANT AND THE OTHER HAVING A TENANT WITH YEAR LEASE. CLOSE TO PARK, SCHOOL AND ALL AMENITIES.

6. 2017-08-07
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   DEMAND 3/3 TONAWANDA TWP DUPLEX WITH EACH UNIT FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS, 1 FULL BATH, SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM AND EAT-IN KITCHEN. UPDATED TEAR OFF 30 YR ARCHITECTURAL ROOF (2105), UPDATED ELECTRIC, HWT’S AND HARDWOOD FLOORS. SEPARATE/PRIVATE INSULATED BASEMENTS AND EXTENDED DRIVEWAY FOR ADDITIONAL PARKING. PERFECT FOR OWNER OCCUPY OR INVESTOR WITH ONE SIDE VACANT AND THE OTHER HAVING A TENANT WITH YEAR LEASE. CLOSE TO PARK, SCHOOL AND ALL AMENITIES.

7. 2017-08-05
   price $119,900 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   DEMAND 3/3 TONAWANDA TWP DUPLEX WITH EACH UNIT FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS, 1 FULL BATH, SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM AND EAT-IN KITCHEN. UPDATED TEAR OFF 30 YR ARCHITECTURAL ROOF (2105), UPDATED ELECTRIC, HWT’S AND HARDWOOD FLOORS. SEPARATE/PRIVATE INSULATED BASEMENTS AND EXTENDED DRIVEWAY FOR ADDITIONAL PARKING. PERFECT FOR OWNER OCCUPY OR INVESTOR WITH ONE SIDE VACANT AND THE OTHER HAVING A TENANT WITH YEAR LEASE. CLOSE TO PARK, SCHOOL AND ALL AMENITIES.

8. 2017-08-03
   listed $134,900 Active 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   DEMAND 3/3 TONAWANDA TWP DUPLEX WITH EACH UNIT FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS, 1 FULL BATH, SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM AND EAT-IN KITCHEN. UPDATED TEAR OFF 30 YR ARCHITECTURAL ROOF (2105), UPDATED ELECTRIC, HWT’S AND HARDWOOD FLOORS. SEPARATE/PRIVATE INSULATED BASEMENTS AND EXTENDED DRIVEWAY FOR ADDITIONAL PARKING. PERFECT FOR OWNER OCCUPY OR INVESTOR WITH ONE SIDE VACANT AND THE OTHER HAVING A TENANT WITH YEAR LEASE. CLOSE TO PARK, SCHOOL AND ALL AMENITIES.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,578 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,578 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$4,578
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$4,066
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$976
• After-tax cash flow: $1,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,611
• Household income: $84,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, India
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -245.18%
• Current HPI: 320.9379
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+96.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $264,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-11-10 Sold (MLS) $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-08-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-08-05 Price Changed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-08-03 Listed $134,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,578 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.