404 Lincoln St

Richmond, IN 47374

$135,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · Built 1928 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $62/mo
• Annual: $749/yr
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($749/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in IN, #869 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D-.
• Richmond Community Schools (town): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in IN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crestdale Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #652 of 994 statewide, top 68%, 390 students, 80% FRL); Richmond High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #270 of 369 statewide, top 77%, 1,332 students, 66% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 38 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.2% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.