3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,779 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,437/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,092
Tax + insurance
−$901
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$722
Net cashflow
$-279/mo
Annual
$-3,345/yr
Cap rate
5.45%
Cash-on-cash
-2.99%
DSCR
0.87
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$111,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $350k (12.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (13.9% below list).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $344k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#663 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Monroe-Woodbury Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #250 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Smith Clove Elementary School (458 students, 56% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury Middle School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #433 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,584 students, 40% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury High School (math 98% / reading 95%, grade A+, #56 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 2,353 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 15% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 53% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Monroe-Woodbury Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $280k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.8% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3TB36Y1TZ6JFW3
· Data 20 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29