126 Forest Trl

Millbrook, AL 36054

$175,999D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,257 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,491/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$923
• Tax + insurance: −$293
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-463/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $49,280

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $176k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-463/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (15.3% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#110 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coosada Elementary School (930 students, 70% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #61 of 257 statewide, top 24%, 1,185 students, 75% FRL); Stanhope Elmore High School (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #87 of 305 statewide, top 29%, 1,181 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 44% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.