126 Forest Trl · Millbrook, AL 36054

$175,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,257 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2003 4,356 sqft lot Est $181k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home well taken care of. Very convenient to schools and shopping. Large greatroom with fireplace. Kitchen with a breakfast bar and dining area. Split plan. Screened back porch.

Key facts

• Screened back porch
• Expansive great room
• Privacy first layout

Tags

• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• CHEF READY KITCHEN
• PRIVACY FIRST LAYOUT
• SCREENED BACK PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; High-speed internet available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Brick construction; Slab foundation; Built per public records; Located on a cul-de-sac city lot (86 x 47)
• Construction: Brick exterior; Slab foundation; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Privacy fence; Storage; Porch (screened); Fire alarm

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen/Dining combo; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Plumbed for ice maker; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Blinds; Insulated doors and storm door(s); Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Breakfast bar; Split bedrooms; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Laundry on the first level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $176k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-463/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#110 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coosada Elementary School (930 students, 70% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #61 of 257 statewide, top 24%, 1,185 students, 75% FRL); Stanhope Elmore High School (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #87 of 305 statewide, top 29%, 1,181 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 44% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,079 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Forest Trl	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,324 (+5%)	1mo	$163,999	$124	90
256 James Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,260 (+0%)	8mo	$135,000	$107	82
61 Penton Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,268 (+1%)	11mo	$190,000	$150	78
87 Penton Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,332 (+6%)	9mo	$183,500	$138	77
3340 Browns Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,367 (+9%)	2mo	$210,000	$154	62
67 Forest Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,422 (+13%)	17mo	$205,000	$144	56
157 Cattail Curv	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,433 (+14%)	5mo	$205,000	$143	55
3242 Browns Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (+9%)	3mo	$215,000	$156	53
125 N Springfield Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,346 (+7%)	2mo	$227,500	$169	51
82 Swans Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (+10%)	17mo	$198,000	$144	51
54 Meadow Oaks Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+11%)	15mo	$190,000	$136	45
109 Mossey Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (+14%)	15mo	$200,000	$140	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-23,075
• Equity at exit: $26,242

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $12,694
• Equity at exit: $15,217

Cash invested: $49,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36054

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,491 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$923
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$220 /mo · $2,640/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,540

Max offer price $170,419

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $22	+0% $-39	+5% $-99	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-97	+0% $-39	+5% $20	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $6	base $-39	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,000
• Closing costs: $5,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33 Jamestown Loop Millbrook, AL	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,375	$1.10	15d	1	0.30mi
63 Lilly Pad Cir Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1521	$1,700	$1.12	15d	1	0.44mi
223 S Springfield Dr Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1761	$1,950	$1.11	45d	1	0.66mi
101 Crossings Dr Millbrook, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,428	$1.31	15d	7	1.35mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-04-20
   status Active
4. 2026-04-06
   historical Contingent
5. 2026-03-28
   listed $175,999 Active
6. 2008-07-30
   soldstatus $135,000 182-char remark

   Show marketing remark (182 chars)

   Great home well taken care of. Very convenient to schools and shopping. Large greatroom with fireplace. Kitchen with a breakfast bar and dining area. Split plan. Screened back porch.

7. 2008-06-06
   listed $135,900 182-char remark

   Show marketing remark (182 chars)

   Great home well taken care of. Very convenient to schools and shopping. Large greatroom with fireplace. Kitchen with a breakfast bar and dining area. Split plan. Screened back porch.

8. 2006-12-27
   soldstatus $120,000 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD. VERY CONVENIENT TO SCHOOLS, SHOPPING, AND TO I-65.

9. 2006-10-09
   listed $120,000 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD. VERY CONVENIENT TO SCHOOLS, SHOPPING, AND TO I-65.

10. 2003-08-28
    soldstatus $107,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,859
• − Property taxes: −$2,640
• − Insurance: −$880
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,431
• − Management: −$1,431
• − Depreciation: −$5,120
• Taxable loss: −$3,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$833
• After-tax cash flow: $370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmore County
• NCES district ID: 0101290
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,898
• Composite: 35.27/100
• National rank: #4974
• State rank: #21 of 129 in AL

Livability — Millbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #12087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millbrook, AL
• County: Elmore County · 36,842 people
• City population: 14,600
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 14,600
• Household income: $68,438
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 201.0

Population outlook (Elmore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,154 people
• By 2030: 86,667 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 89,014 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 90,331 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 96,096 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 95,290 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Elmore

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+48.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.96%
• Current HPI: 151.6671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+64.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — MAAR
• 2026-04-26 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — MAAR
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-03-28 Listed $175,999 MAAR
• 2008-07-30 Sold (MLS) $135,000 MAAR
• 2008-06-06 Listed $135,900 MAAR
• 2006-12-27 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MAAR
• 2006-10-09 Listed $120,000 MAAR
• 2003-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2017): $349 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.