3428 Ray Owens Rd

Appling, GA 30802

$459,900D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,755 sqft · Built 1974 · Other · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,860/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax + insurance: −$447
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-1,390/mo
• Annual: $-16,676/yr
• Cap rate: 2.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.95%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.40%
• Cash to close: $128,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $460k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (53.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (59.6% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (59.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#457 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Columbia Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #79 of 1,228 statewide, top 7%, 459 students, 22% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #155 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 981 students, 39% FRL); Harlem High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 1,223 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $460k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 1.1% in Appling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.