1176 W Buttonbush Dr

Pine Ridge, FL 34465

$179,900F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 992 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-712/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-712/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (24.0% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest Ridge Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 708 students, 67% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 396 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $180k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.