504 Cedar

Megargel, TX 76370

$35,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,812 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,282/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $746/mo
• Annual: $8,955/yr
• Cap rate: 31.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.38%
• DSCR: 5.07
• 1% rule: 3.66%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,435 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Olney ISD (town): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #150 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Olney El (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 363 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Olney ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Archer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Archer County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.