504 Cedar · Megargel, TX 76370

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,812 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1920 6,970 sqft lot $19/sqft · 81% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; Treat as clear loan type
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: City water
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1920; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Original construction from 1920
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Open floorplan; One level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,435 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Olney ISD (town): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #150 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Olney El (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 363 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Olney ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Archer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Archer County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.38%
• DSCR: 5.07
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,582
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -81.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 95.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $51,782
• Equity at exit: $15,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.2%
• Equity multiple: 13.02×
• Total profit: $117,778
• Equity at exit: $24,253

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76370

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $337

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $766	-5% $756	+0% $746	+5% $736	+10% $726
Rent	-10% $645	-5% $696	+0% $746	+5% $797	+10% $848
Rate	-1.0pp $764	-0.5pp $755	base $746	+0.5pp $737	+1.0pp $728

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $35,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $35,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $35,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $35,000 Active 965-char remark
18. 2024-04-17
    soldstatus
19. 2008-07-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $8,948
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,148
• After-tax cash flow: $6,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833630
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,813
• Composite: 44.09/100
• National rank: #2874
• State rank: #150 of 826 in TX

Livability — Megargel

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1435
• US rank: #24533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Megargel, TX
• Population (ZIP): 464

Population outlook (Archer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,158 people
• By 2030: 7,855 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 7,120 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 6,320 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 4,842 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 3,527 · -56.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Archer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.3) · D 10.1% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -65.4pp · 2024: -79.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.3 2020: R+80.4 2016: R+79.4 2012: R+73.8 2008: R+65.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $35,000 NTREIS
• 2024-04-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $818 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.