1050 Creek Rd

Spruce Hill, PA 17082

$159,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 2014 · Manufactured · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$251
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $1,419/mo
• Annual: $17,034/yr
• Cap rate: 17.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.83%
• DSCR: 2.77
• 1% rule: 1.99%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Juniata County SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #423 of 539 in PA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Juniata El Sch (math 24% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,087 of 1,518 statewide, top 72%, 674 students, 52% FRL); Tuscarora Ms (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #399 of 512 statewide, top 79%, 312 students, 51% FRL); Juniata Shs (math 42%, 541 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 34% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Juniata County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Juniata County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $160k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.