1050 Creek Rd · Spruce Hill, PA 17082

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2014 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2014 built 1140 square foot 3 bedroom 2 bath singlewide on 0.50 more or less rural acres with a sweet little stream running through it. Sizable living room, eat -in kitchen with refrigerator and range included, laundry room with washer and dryer, owner's bedroom with a large owner's bath that includes a walk-in closet attached and at the other end, two additional bedrooms and a full bath. Rear deck overlooks yard and stream. Home was professionally installed. Private well and septic. Propane FWA heat. Rural setting approximately 15 minutes from 322.

Key facts

• Space for gardening
• One level living
• Private full bath

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE FULL BATH
• NATURAL SURROUNDINGS
• STREAM RUNS THROUGH PROPERTY
• SPACE FOR GARDENING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; Driveway parking (2 spaces); Two total garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; No municipal trash service; Electric cooling fuel; Electric hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single wide model (Commodore 1A123A); Entry level on main floor; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; No basement; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Year built estimated
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Porch(es); Outbuilding(s); Level lot; Stream/creek on the property; Water access to a creek; Water-oriented property

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven/range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (owned) heating fuel; Window air conditioning units; Ductless / mini-split cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Master bathroom; Paneled walls
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Juniata County SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #423 of 539 in PA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Juniata El Sch (math 24% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,087 of 1,518 statewide, top 72%, 674 students, 52% FRL); Tuscarora Ms (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #399 of 512 statewide, top 79%, 312 students, 51% FRL); Juniata Shs (math 42%, 541 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 34% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Juniata County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Juniata County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $160k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.83%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $116,510
• Equity at exit: $79,134

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $280,004
• Equity at exit: $127,908

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17082

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,412/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $1,419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,510	-5% $1,465	+0% $1,419	+5% $1,374	+10% $1,329
Rent	-10% $1,169	-5% $1,294	+0% $1,419	+5% $1,545	+10% $1,670
Rate	-1.0pp $1,500	-0.5pp $1,460	base $1,419	+0.5pp $1,378	+1.0pp $1,336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $159,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-06-01
    listed $164,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,412 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,969 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$557/yr (+$46/mo · 39.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,412
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,049
• − Management: −$3,049
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $15,393
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,694
• After-tax cash flow: $13,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Juniata County SD
• NCES district ID: 4212600
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,589
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6591
• State rank: #423 of 539 in PA

Livability — Spruce Hill

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,985

Population outlook (Juniata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,489 people
• By 2030: 24,022 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 22,520 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 20,382 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 15,680 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 11,150 · -54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 10% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Juniata

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+61.8 2012: R+45.2 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 163.8669
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+65.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $164,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-02 Sold (MLS) $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-02 Sold (MLS) $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-18 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-18 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,412 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.