234 Stoney Rdg

Hudson, TX 75904

$220,990D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,203 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,630/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,159
• Tax + insurance: −$368
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-240/mo
• Annual: $-2,875/yr
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.65%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $61,877

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $221k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#791 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hudson ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #85 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W F Peavy Pri (696 students, 59% FRL); Hudson Middle (math 71% / reading 55%, grade B+, #123 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 646 students, 55% FRL); Hudson H S (math 66% / reading 68%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 797 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.0% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.