234 Stoney Rdg · Hudson, TX 75904

$220,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,203 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $100/sqft · 31% below area Est $321k · 31% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 147 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $221k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.0% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#791 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hudson ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #85 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W F Peavy Pri (696 students, 59% FRL); Hudson Middle (math 71% / reading 55%, grade B+, #123 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 646 students, 55% FRL); Hudson H S (math 66% / reading 68%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 797 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $162,994 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.65%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,759
• List price: $220,990
• Delta: -31.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
683 N Fm 1194	0.36mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (-7%)	20mo	$175,000	$86	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-51,043
• Equity at exit: $32,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-63,994
• Equity at exit: $19,107

Cash invested: $61,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75904

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,159
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$276 /mo · $3,315/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,933

Max offer price $186,325

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-163	+0% $-240	+5% $-316	+10% $-392
Rent	-10% $-368	-5% $-304	+0% $-240	+5% $-175	+10% $-111
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-183	base $-240	+0.5pp $-297	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,248
• Closing costs: $6,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $220,990 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-05-14
   price $229,990 24-char remark

   Show marketing remark (24 chars)

   Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

3. 2026-05-12
   historical
4. 2026-04-22
   price $232,990 24-char remark

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   Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

5. 2026-04-21
   price $232,990
6. 2026-04-21
   price $232,990
7. 2026-04-18
   price $233,990 24-char remark

   Show marketing remark (24 chars)

   Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

8. 2026-04-17
   price $233,990
9. 2026-04-17
   price $233,990
10. 2026-04-14
    listed $236,990 Active
11. 2026-04-14
    historical
12. 2026-04-13
    price $236,990
13. 2026-04-13
    price $236,990
14. 2026-04-11
    price $236,990 24-char remark

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    Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

15. 2026-03-27
    price $241,990
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $241,990 Active
17. 2026-03-25
    price $241,990 24-char remark

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    Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

18. 2026-03-11
    price $246,990 24-char remark

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    Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

19. 2026-03-04
    price $256,990 24-char remark

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    Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

20. 2026-02-27
    price $247,990 24-char remark

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    Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

21. 2026-02-12
    price $256,990 24-char remark

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    Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

22. 2026-02-06
    price $264,990 24-char remark

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    Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

23. 2026-01-24
    price $267,154 24-char remark

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    Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

24. 2026-01-15
    price $267,155

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    Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

25. 2026-01-15
    price $267,155 24-char remark

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    Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

26. 2026-01-02
    listed $268,655 Active 24-char remark

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    Model 2203 A1 - Harrison

27. 2025-11-19
    listed $268,655 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,379
• − Property taxes: −$3,315
• − Insurance: −$1,105
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,565
• − Management: −$1,565
• − Depreciation: −$6,429
• Taxable loss: −$6,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,631
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823790
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,047
• Composite: 49.4/100
• National rank: #2012
• State rank: #85 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #791
• US rank: #14441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hudson, TX
• County: Angelina County · 62,696 people
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,462
• Household income: $60,205
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1159.0

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.71%
• Current HPI: 213.4236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.4% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $232,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $232,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $232,990 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $233,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $233,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $233,990 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $236,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $236,990 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $236,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $236,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $241,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $241,990 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $241,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $246,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $267,154 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $267,155 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $267,155 Zillow
• 2026-01-02 Listed $268,655 Zillow
• 2025-11-19 Listed $268,655 HARMLS