Cavco JW83 Holiday Village Plan

Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37207

$210,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,802/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $762/mo
• Annual: $9,145/yr
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.55%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 535 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.9% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,802/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.