Cavco JW83 Holiday Village Plan · Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37207

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · Manufactured · 25 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.9

Listing remarks

Holiday Village in Nashville, Tennessee is a peaceful, yet vibrant community, ideal for people dreaming of owning a home in a thriving area of Tennessee. Our 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom homes feature spacious open-concept floor plans, Energy-Star Certified appliances, and wood kitchen cabinets. Holiday Village, owned and operated by UMH Properties, is a gated community offering a wide variety of amenities, including bus shelters, and playgrounds. Additionally, this Nashville community offers exciting events such as resident appreciation nights, raffles, and seed and fertilizer handouts to jumpstart your landscaping.

Key facts

• Listed 25 days

Tags

• WOOD KITCHEN CABINETS

🏗️ New construction. The $210,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $234,163.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.0% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tom Joy Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #926 of 952 statewide, top 100%, 456 students, 0% FRL); Jere Baxter Middle (math 2% / reading 3%, grade F, #329 of 333 statewide, top 99%, 440 students, 0% FRL); Maplewood High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #294 of 332 statewide, top 91%, 691 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 794 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,850 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.77%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,163
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -10.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3318 Conviser Dr	1.16mi	3/2.5	1,828 (+7%)	1mo	$426,635	$233	50
3320 Conviser Dr	1.15mi	3/2.5	1,828 (+7%)	1mo	$432,100	$236	50
3322 Conviser Dr	1.15mi	3/3.5	1,828 (+7%)	1mo	$436,085	$239	46
2706B Brunswick Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-16%)	1mo	$359,500	$250	43
3314 Conviser Dr	1.16mi	3/3.5	1,874 (+10%)	0mo	$456,800	$244	42
2028 Jones Cir	0.68mi	3/3.5	1,917 (+12%)	0mo	$635,000	$331	41
110 Ventura Way	0.79mi	4/4.5 (+1)	1,853 (+9%)	0mo	$1,350,000	$729	35
215 Harmony Aly	0.86mi	3/3.5	1,985 (+16%)	1mo	$550,000	$277	33
219 Harmony Aly	0.86mi	3/3.5	1,985 (+16%)	1mo	$499,990	$252	33
217 Harmony Aly	0.86mi	3/3.5	1,985 (+16%)	1mo	$499,990	$252	33
801 Cherokee Ave #6	0.95mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,280 (-25%)	1mo	$387,500	$303	32
1122 Harmony Way	1.10mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,087 (+22%)	1mo	$650,000	$311	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-28,601
• Equity at exit: $34,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-23,008
• Equity at exit: $20,246

Cash invested: $65,566 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active
• Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $210,000 ($114/sqft)
• Median days on market: 25 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37207

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 794
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,309 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,228
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$293 /mo · $3,512/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,048

Max offer price $234,163

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $368	-5% $287	+0% $206	+5% $125	+10% $44
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $115	+0% $206	+5% $297	+10% $389
Rate	-1.0pp $324	-0.5pp $266	base $206	+0.5pp $145	+1.0pp $84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,541
• Closing costs: $7,025
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Grizzard Ave #3 Nashville, TN	4.0	4.0	1922	$4,845	$2.52	5d	1	0.14mi
106 Grizzard Ave #1 Nashville, TN	4.0	4.0	1938	$4,995	$2.58	5d	1	0.14mi
109 W Trinity Ln Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,597	$1.33	64d	1	0.20mi
105 Duke St #9 Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	1631	$3,300	$2.02	119d	1	0.27mi
105 Duke St #6 Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1536	$2,295	$1.49	10d	1	0.27mi
109 Duke St Unit B Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	119d	1	0.30mi
109 Duke St Unit D Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	74d	1	0.30mi
109 Duke St Unit E Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,200	$1.57	119d	1	0.30mi
229 Duke St Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	1751	$3,150	$1.80	119d	1	0.45mi
1206 Avondale Cir Nashville, TN	4.0	1.5	1199	$3,000	$2.50	10d	1	0.52mi
1801 Meridian St Nashville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	975	$2,758	$2.83	0d	20	0.53mi
128 Gordon Ter Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	106d	1	0.54mi
349 Queen Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	1496	$2,895	$1.94	10d	1	0.58mi
1241 N Avondale Cir Nashville, TN	4.0	4.0	2244	$2,999	$1.34	100d	1	0.59mi
336 Queen Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	1610	$2,873	$1.78	74d	1	0.62mi
143 Donald St Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1279	$2,700	$2.11	7d	1	0.64mi
1806 Lischey Ave #3 Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	1800	$2,895	$1.61	119d	1	0.66mi
1806 Lischey Ave #1 Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	1800	$4,800	$2.67	119d	1	0.66mi
5515 Scruggs Ln Nashville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,681	$1.65	0d	45	0.68mi
1708B Lischey Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	2080	$3,000	$1.44	10d	1	0.69mi
303 Gatewood Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	2160	$2,999	$1.39	119d	1	0.70mi
1605 Lischey Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	1756	$3,150	$1.79	7d	1	0.76mi
149 Dellway Dr Nashville, TN	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,388	$2.07	80d	1	0.77mi
1807 Liberia St Nashville, TN	4.0	4.5	2100	$2,775	$1.32	85d	1	0.77mi
1835 Glade St Nashville, TN	4.0	3.5	1920	$4,200	$2.19	10d	1	0.80mi
1835 Glade St Nashville, TN	4.0	4.0	1920	$4,095	$2.13	117d	1	0.80mi
1829 Glade St Nashville, TN	4.0	2.0	1274	$2,161	$1.70	10d	1	0.82mi
120 Marie St Nashville, TN	3.0	3.5	1871	$3,000	$1.60	10d	1	0.84mi
463 Monticello St Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,700	$1.31	10d	1	0.85mi
214 Lucile Ln Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1326	$2,499	$1.88	82d	1	0.86mi
1811 Seminary St Unit A Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	2125	$2,800	$1.32	58d	1	0.86mi
121 Lucile St Nashville, TN	4.0	4.5	2203	$3,423	$1.55	10d	1	0.87mi
1812 Glade St Nashville, TN	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	68d	1	0.88mi
1812 Glade St Nashville, TN	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	82d	1	0.88mi
1812 Glade St Nashville, TN	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	74d	1	0.88mi
617 Merrylodge Ct Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,340	$1.38	4d	1	0.89mi
504 Edwin St #18 Nashville, TN	4.0	3.5	2002	$3,395	$1.70	80d	1	0.89mi
504 Edwin St #1 Nashville, TN	4.0	3.5	1808	$2,995	$1.66	7d	1	0.89mi
504 Edwin St #18 Nashville, TN	4.0	3.5	2002	$3,495	$1.75	119d	1	0.89mi
223 Lucile St Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,841	$1.80	4d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $210,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,117
• − Property taxes: −$3,512
• − Insurance: −$1,171
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,217
• − Management: −$2,217
• − Depreciation: −$6,812
• Taxable loss: −$1,335
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$320
• After-tax cash flow: $2,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This manufactured home in the Cavco JW83 Holiday Village Plan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrading appliances — Attracts more buyers with modern, energy-efficient features ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 4/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tom Joy Elementary F TN #926/952 Nat'l #41,309/41,679 Middle Jere Baxter Middle F TN #329/333 Nat'l #13,969/14,009 High Maplewood High F TN #294/332 Nat'l #16,721/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County
• NCES district ID: 4703180
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,667
• Composite: 14.03/100
• National rank: #9472
• State rank: #126 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN
• County: Davidson County · 808,568 people
• City population: 677,595
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 41,366
• Household income: $61,744
• Rent vs Own: 44.3% rent · 55.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 808,568 people
• By 2030: 874,489 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 1,009,046 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 1,147,294 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 1,475,439 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 1,714,101 · +112.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 62.7% · R 35.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: 21.0pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+26.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.21%
• Current HPI: 351.9628
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B