Cavco JW83 Holiday Village Plan · Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37207

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Holiday Village in Nashville, Tennessee is a peaceful, yet vibrant community, ideal for people dreaming of owning a home in a thriving area of Tennessee. Our 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom homes feature spacious open-concept floor plans, Energy-Star Certified appliances, and wood kitchen cabinets. Holiday Village, owned and operated by UMH Properties, is a gated community offering a wide variety of amenities, including bus shelters, and playgrounds. Additionally, this Nashville community offers exciting events such as resident appreciation nights, raffles, and seed and fertilizer handouts to jumpstart your landscaping. With our new expansion underway, we invite you to come choose your lot and custom

Key facts

• Listed 21 days

Tags

• WOOD KITCHEN CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $210,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and central air
• Home design: Manufactured home plan: Cavco JW83 Holiday Village; Listed as a plan
• Construction: Living area approximately 1706; Manufactured construction (Cavco plan)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.9% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 535 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,802/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,850 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.55%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,919
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $52,932
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37207

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 535
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,802 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Duke St #9 Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	1631	$3,300	$2.02	23d	1	0.27mi
105 Duke St #6 Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1536	$2,475	$1.61	12d	1	0.27mi
109 Duke St Unit B Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	23d	1	0.30mi
109 Duke St Unit E Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,200	$1.57	23d	1	0.30mi
229 Duke St Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	1751	$3,150	$1.80	23d	1	0.45mi
1801 Meridian St Nashville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1050	$2,817	$2.68	4d	10	0.53mi
128 Gordon Ter Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	10d	1	0.54mi
1241 N Avondale Cir Nashville, TN	4.0	4.0	2244	$2,999	$1.34	4d	1	0.59mi
1806 Lischey Ave #3 Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	1800	$2,895	$1.61	23d	1	0.66mi
1806 Lischey Ave #1 Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	1800	$4,800	$2.67	23d	1	0.66mi
5515 Scruggs Ln Nashville, TN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1128	$1,799	$1.59	2d	42	0.68mi
303 Gatewood Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	2160	$2,999	$1.39	23d	1	0.70mi
1807 Liberia St Nashville, TN	4.0	4.5	2100	$3,050	$1.45	4d	1	0.77mi
1835 Glade St Nashville, TN	4.0	4.0	1920	$4,095	$2.13	21d	1	0.80mi
55 Lucile St Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0–2.0	731	$2,125	$2.91	1d	23	0.86mi
214 Lucile Ln Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1326	$2,595	$1.96	12d	1	0.86mi
121 Lucile St Nashville, TN	4.0	4.5	2203	$3,573	$1.62	23d	1	0.87mi
504 Edwin St #18 Nashville, TN	4.0	3.5	2002	$3,495	$1.75	23d	1	0.89mi
504 Edwin St #18 Nashville, TN	4.0	3.5	2002	$3,495	$1.75	3d	1	0.89mi
112 Lucile St Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,795	$1.50	23d	1	0.89mi
115 Elmhurst Ave Nashville, TN	4.0	3.0	2016	$3,995	$1.98	23d	1	0.91mi
115 Elmhurst Ave Nashville, TN	4.0	3.0	2016	$3,995	$1.98	14d	1	0.91mi
99 Fern Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	2033	$3,450	$1.70	14d	1	0.96mi
513B Weakley Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	2200	$3,500	$1.59	23d	1	0.97mi
64 Fern Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	1468	$3,149	$2.15	2d	1	1.00mi
538 Norton Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,000	$1.43	19d	1	1.00mi
2079 Oakwood Ave Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1800	$2,500	$1.39	23d	1	1.03mi
514 Proximity Cir Nashville, TN	3.0	3.5	2237	$2,900	$1.30	23d	1	1.04mi
1301 Baptist World Center Dr Unit 1385496P Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1097	$2,693	$2.45	7d	1	1.07mi
105 Hart Ln Unit B Nashville, TN	3.0	3.5	1825	$2,600	$1.42	4d	1	1.07mi
105 Hart Ln Unit D Nashville, TN	3.0	3.5	2135	$2,750	$1.29	23d	1	1.07mi
2718 Oakwood Ave Nashville, TN	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,595	$1.40	23d	1	1.07mi
3060 Edwin Cir Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	2070	$2,995	$1.45	4d	1	1.07mi
3060 Edwin Cir Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	2070	$3,200	$1.55	17d	1	1.07mi
1221 Joseph Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,800	$1.75	21d	1	1.09mi
1305 Lischey Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	3.0	2199	$3,500	$1.59	17d	1	1.10mi
1111 Baptist World Center Dr #4 Nashville, TN	2.0	3.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	21d	1	1.11mi
2628 Old Matthews Rd Nashville, TN	4.0	1.5	1584	$2,185	$1.38	20d	1	1.12mi
518 Yokley Dr Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	2020	$2,770	$1.37	23d	1	1.14mi
1100 Sunset Cir Nashville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1070	$1,899	$1.77	3d	7	1.15mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,690
• − Management: −$2,690
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $6,169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,480
• After-tax cash flow: $7,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This manufactured home in the Cavco JW83 Holiday Village Plan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Upgrading appliances — Attracts more buyers with modern, energy-efficient features

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrading appliances — Attracts more buyers with modern, energy-efficient features ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County
• NCES district ID: 4703180
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,667
• Composite: 14.03/100
• National rank: #9472
• State rank: #126 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN
• County: Davidson County · 680,067 people
• City population: 677,595
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 41,366
• Household income: $61,744
• Rent vs Own: 44.3% rent · 55.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1969.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 808,568 people
• By 2030: 874,489 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 1,009,046 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 1,147,294 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 1,475,439 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 1,714,101 · +112.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 62.7% · R 35.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: 21.0pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+26.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.21%
• Current HPI: 351.9628
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B