164 Baird Rd

Caribou, ME 04736

$99,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 391 sqft · Built 1869 · SingleFamily · Active · 204 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $932/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $-6/mo
• Annual: $-71/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-71/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (6.7% below list).
• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#46 in ME, #4,849 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• RSU 39 (town): math 82% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #79 of 112 in ME (top 70%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1869 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Aroostook County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Aroostook County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Caribou — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1869 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.