164 Baird Rd · Caribou, ME 04736

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 391 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1869 1.00 ac lot $255/sqft · 22% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Location! This solid older home offers 2+ bedrooms, a large eat-in kitchen, and a spacious living room—perfect for comfortable everyday living. Enjoy the extra flexibility of a bonus room for an office, hobby space, or guest area. Outside, you'll find a 2-car garage, two storage sheds, and a beautiful 1-acre lot with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Call Today!!

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Bonus room
• 2-car garage

Tags

• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• 2-CAR GARAGE
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• 1-ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-71/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Caribou — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#46 in ME, #4,849 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• RSU 39 (town): math 82% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #79 of 112 in ME (top 70%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Aroostook County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Aroostook County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1869 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1869 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,764
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -66.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-16,519
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-14,683
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04736

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,119/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $939

Max offer price $98,856

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $22	+0% $-6	+5% $-34	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $-43	+0% $-6	+5% $31	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $19	base $-6	+0.5pp $-32	+1.0pp $-58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 185 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-02-06
    status Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Great Location! This solid older home offers 2+ bedrooms, a large eat-in kitchen, and a spacious living room—perfect for comfortable everyday living. Enjoy the extra flexibility of a bonus room for an office, hobby space, or guest area. Outside, you'll find a 2-car garage, two storage sheds, and a beautiful 1-acre lot with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Call Today!!

18. 2026-01-09
    status Pending 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Great Location! This solid older home offers 2+ bedrooms, a large eat-in kitchen, and a spacious living room—perfect for comfortable everyday living. Enjoy the extra flexibility of a bonus room for an office, hobby space, or guest area. Outside, you'll find a 2-car garage, two storage sheds, and a beautiful 1-acre lot with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Call Today!!

19. 2025-10-31
    listed $99,900 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Great Location! This solid older home offers 2+ bedrooms, a large eat-in kitchen, and a spacious living room—perfect for comfortable everyday living. Enjoy the extra flexibility of a bonus room for an office, hobby space, or guest area. Outside, you'll find a 2-car garage, two storage sheds, and a beautiful 1-acre lot with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Call Today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,119 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,119 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥87°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,119
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$895
• − Management: −$895
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$415
• After-tax cash flow: $344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 39
• NCES district ID: 2314794
• Math proficiency: 82% ▲ 55.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 39.00%
• Median HH income: $38,159
• Composite: 68.6/100
• National rank: #341
• State rank: #79 of 112 in ME

Livability — Caribou

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #4849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caribou, ME
• City population: 9,107
• Population (ZIP): 9,107

Population outlook (Aroostook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,905 people
• By 2030: 57,815 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 49,240 · -20.5%
• By 2050: 41,386 · -33.1%
• By 2075: 27,664 · -55.3%
• By 2100: 18,974 · -69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 28% Slovak 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Aroostook

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.2% · R 62.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.8pp toward R · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+17.3 2012: D+7.7 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.06%
• Current HPI: 219.5142
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Relisted — MREIS
• 2026-01-09 Pending — MREIS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $99,900 MREIS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,119 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.