3012 E Valley View Ter

Tacoma, WA 98404

$612,000D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,884 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,071/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,209
• Tax + insurance: −$914
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,065
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,398/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $171,360

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $612k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $591k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $507k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($594k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $507k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#127 in WA, #2,535 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Tacoma School District (urban): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #169 of 291 in WA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blix Elementary School (475 students, 69% FRL); First Creek Middle School (575 students, 82% FRL); Lincoln High School (1,578 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 182 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; list at $612k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.9% in Tacoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,071/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 989% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.