10 Foster Ln

Hempstead, TX 77445

$71,999A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 235 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,169/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $426/mo
• Annual: $5,113/yr
• Cap rate: 13.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.36%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($498 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,099 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Hempstead ISD (town): math 16% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #795 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hempstead El (math 19% / reading 15%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 834 students, 90% FRL); Hempstead Middle (math 14% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 339 students, 84% FRL); Hempstead H S (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 465 students, 80% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.3% in Hempstead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Severe weathering
• Major: roof — Signs of deterioration
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation