469076 E 595 Rd

Watts, OK 74964

$445,000B

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,688 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,857/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$299
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,020
• Net cashflow: $1,205/mo
• Annual: $14,458/yr
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.60%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $445k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $405k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#559 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Moseley (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #418 of 513 in OK (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 30 units permitted in Adair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (9.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $125k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.