469076 E 595 Rd · Dripping Springs, OK 74964

$445,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,688 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2015 6.14 ac lot Est $492k · 10% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market at no fault to the seller. A homesteaders paradise! This home 2.8 miles from hwy nestled among the pine trees with a stunning view. Large fenced in garden featuring multiple fruit trees, some raised beds, and even a fantastic chicken coop! Wood stove! Home boasts a stunning wrap around deck and fantastic outdoor kitchen which will be great for entertaining, and enjoying the view. Interior of the home has an open concept feel with enough room for everyone. Extra large walk in pantry is great for storage and even canning and small appliances. The primary bedroom is downstairs and has a great bathroom with a soaker tub and separate shower. Other bedrooms are upstairs and h

Key facts

• Raised beds
• Wrap around deck
• Fenced in garden

Tags

• FENCED IN GARDEN
• MULTIPLE FRUIT TREES
• RAISED BEDS
• CHICKEN COOP
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fees billed monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway
• Security: Storm shelter; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electricity available; Propane available; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: 2-story home; Northwest-facing; Crawlspace foundation; Resale (less than 25 years old)
• Construction: Concrete construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Has home warranty
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Circular driveway; Balcony; Covered porch; Deck; Outbuilding; Workshop; Chain link partial fencing; Storm shelter; Smoke detectors; Secluded, wooded setting with views; County road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Pantry; Propane range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Plumbed for ice maker; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (approx. 15.3 x 13.10); Second-level bedroom (approx. 12.8 x 10.10)
• Flooring: Bamboo; Laminate; Simulated wood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Pantry; Wood burning stove; Multiple living areas; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $445k).
• Recommended offer: $405k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#624 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Moseley (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #418 of 513 in OK (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 30 units permitted in Adair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Adair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $125k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $404,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.60%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $491,904
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
59054 4695 Rd	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,318 (-14%)	0mo	$425,000	$183	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $310,713
• Equity at exit: $392,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.84×
• Total profit: $852,160
• Equity at exit: $836,671

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74964

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,358/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,020
• Net cashflow: $1,205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,332

Max offer price $445,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,457	-5% $1,331	+0% $1,205	+5% $1,079	+10% $953
Rent	-10% $821	-5% $1,013	+0% $1,205	+5% $1,397	+10% $1,589
Rate	-1.0pp $1,429	-0.5pp $1,318	base $1,205	+0.5pp $1,090	+1.0pp $972

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
468581 E 599 Rd Unit 1221901P Colcord, OK	3.0	2.0	2012	$4,857	$2.41	14d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $445,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $445,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $445,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $445,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $445,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $445,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $445,000
17. 2026-05-06
    status Active
18. 2026-04-23
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-02
    price $450,000
20. 2026-03-02
    listed $480,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,358 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,005 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,647/yr (+$221/mo · 194.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$1,358
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,663
• − Management: −$4,663
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable income: $7,503
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,801
• After-tax cash flow: $12,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moseley
• NCES district ID: 4020430
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,121
• Composite: 19.83/100
• National rank: #13893
• State rank: #418 of 513 in OK

Livability — Dripping Springs

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #24663

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,110

Population outlook (Adair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,805 people
• By 2030: 20,073 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 18,496 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 16,970 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 14,011 · -32.7%
• By 2100: 12,211 · -41.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Native American 24% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.0) · D 17.8% · R 80.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.3pp toward R · 2008: -38.7pp · 2024: -63.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.0 2020: R+59.1 2016: R+52.2 2012: R+34.8 2008: R+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.73%
• Current HPI: 355.9058
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $445,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $450,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $480,000 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,358 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.