1561 Jefferson Ave

Miami Beach, FL 33139

$4,500,000D

18 bd · 13.8 ba · 10,334 sqft · Built 1957 · MultiFamily · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $36,410/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,598
• Tax + insurance: −$6,038
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,646
• Net cashflow: $-873/mo
• Annual: $-10,470/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $1,260,000

Investor read

• This is a 6 × 3-bed/2.3-bath units multifamily listed at $4.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-873 ($-10k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-145/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $4.35M (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.64M (19.1% below list).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.96M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.64M (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $31k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $98k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in FL, #1,672 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Miami Beach Feinberg/Fisher K-8 (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 842 students, 61% FRL); Miami Beach Nautilus Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 918 students, 44% FRL); Miami Beach Senior High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 2,175 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 64% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 1224 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $250k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.10M; list at $4.50M implies a 309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.5% in Miami Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $36,410/mo this rent would consume 626% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 4052% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.