10538 Berry Branch Ln

Bryan, TX 77845

$202,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 995 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,683/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,064
• Tax + insurance: −$338
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-73/mo
• Annual: $-873/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $56,812

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $203k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-873/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities C-.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Bryan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.