10538 Berry Branch Ln · Bryan, TX 77845

$202,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 995 sqft · Townhouse · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! The 1004 is a thoughtfully designed townhome that begins with a welcoming front porch and a side-entry door that opens into a bright living room accented by a front-facing window for natural light. The kitchen sits just beyond and features a peninsula island with the sink, plus a convenient pantry closet and nearby utility closet. A back door off the kitchen leads to a rear porch, making outdoor access easy. This plan offers two well-appointed bedrooms: one with its own private bathroom and double-door closet, and the other with a spaci

Key facts

• Front porch
• Bright living room
• Utility closet

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• SIDE-ENTRY DOOR
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• PENINSULA ISLAND
• PANTRY CLOSET
• UTILITY CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 10538 Berry Branch Ln, College Station, TX 77845; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $199,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family property; Plan name: The 1004
• Construction: Built in 2026 (new construction)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 995

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $203k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-873/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Bryan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities C-.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,289 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,264
• Equity at exit: $30,253

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,402
• Equity at exit: $17,543

Cash invested: $56,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77845

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 1168
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,064
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$254 /mo · $3,044/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,775

Max offer price $192,378

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,725
• Closing costs: $6,087
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1720 Summit Crossing Ln College Station, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,762	$1.79	13d	46	1.00mi
1424 Crescent Ridge Dr College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	1119	$1,269	$1.13	43d	1	1.50mi
4050 Eastchester Dr Bryan, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,733	$1.92	13d	7	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $202,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $202,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $202,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $202,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $202,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $202,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $202,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $202,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $202,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $202,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $201,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $201,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $201,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $201,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $201,900 Active 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,366
• − Property taxes: −$3,044
• − Insurance: −$1,014
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$5,903
• Taxable loss: −$4,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,047
• After-tax cash flow: $174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhouse is in good condition with no visible major repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for cosmetic updates and improvements to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can increase the home's appeal and value for both resale and rental.
• Both New flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing the home's value for both resale and rental.
• Both Roof inspection and maintenance — A thorough roof inspection can ensure the roof is in good condition and address any potential issues before they become major problems.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can increase the home's appeal and value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both New flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing the home's value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Roof inspection and maintenance — A thorough roof inspection can ensure the roof is in good condition and address any potential issues before they become major problems. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,895
• Composite: 26.26/100
• National rank: #7253
• State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bryan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3341

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bryan, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 101,772
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 76,764
• Household income: $88,851
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3329.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.31%
• Current HPI: 175.9669
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B