115 Melody

Lone Grove, OK 73443

$39,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,236/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax + insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $730/mo
• Annual: $8,756/yr
• Cap rate: 28.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.17%
• DSCR: 4.52
• 1% rule: 3.13%
• Cash to close: $11,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $37k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $299 of equity ($273 loan paydown + $26 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#168 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lone Grove (rural): math 26% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #73 of 270 in OK (top 27%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 28.5% vs local median 2.5% in Lone Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.