115 Melody · Lone Grove, OK 73443

$39,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1979 1.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Unlock the potential in this 3-bed, 2-bath brick home—your next standout renovation project. Sitting on a solid foundation with great structure, this property is ready for a full transformation from top to bottom. Perfect for investors, flippers, or vision-driven buyers looking to create serious value. Bring your creativity, roll up your sleeves, and turn this blank-canvas opportunity into something incredible.

Key facts

• 1.51 acre lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 70 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Brick and concrete construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built per public records
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; Property faces south

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details provided
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.5% vs local median 2.5% in Lone Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#168 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lone Grove (rural): math 26% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #73 of 270 in OK (top 27%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $299 of equity ($273 loan paydown + $26 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Carter County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,130 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.17%
• DSCR: 4.52
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,584
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 Newport Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-12%)	2mo	$221,500	$145	60
39 Melody Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+14%)	19mo	$130,000	$66	60
15 Meadow	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,606 (-8%)	17mo	$170,000	$106	41
154 Church	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,486 (-15%)	12mo	$165,000	$111	36
195 Gooseberry St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,983 (+14%)	14mo	$239,000	$121	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $45,442
• Equity at exit: $11,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.47×
• Total profit: $104,743
• Equity at exit: $14,047

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73443

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $281/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $313

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $752	-5% $741	+0% $730	+5% $718	+10% $707
Rent	-10% $632	-5% $681	+0% $730	+5% $779	+10% $827
Rate	-1.0pp $750	-0.5pp $740	base $730	+0.5pp $719	+1.0pp $709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $39,500 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,500 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,500 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,500 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,500 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,500 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,500 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,500 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,500 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,500 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $39,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $281 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $356 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$74/yr (+$6/mo · 26.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$281
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $8,622
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,069
• After-tax cash flow: $6,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lone Grove
• NCES district ID: 4018090
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,980
• Composite: 24.27/100
• National rank: #7718
• State rank: #73 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lone Grove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #13809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lone Grove, OK
• Population (ZIP): 3,343

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,892 people
• By 2030: 51,913 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 53,857 · +5.8%
• By 2050: 55,604 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 60,670 · +19.2%
• By 2100: 62,366 · +22.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 16% Native American 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.7) · D 21.9% · R 76.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.2pp toward R · 2008: -40.5pp · 2024: -54.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.7 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+42.7 2008: R+40.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Current HPI: 293.5414
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $39,500 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $281 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.