11057 Arnold Hwy

Fairfield, MI 49248

$130,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,182/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $166/mo
• Annual: $1,995/yr
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.48%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (9.1% below list).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sand Creek Community Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #183 of 540 in MI (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ruth Mcgregor Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #200 of 1,397 statewide, top 16%, 357 students, 52% FRL); Sand Creek High School (math 22% / reading 39%, grade F, #426 of 713 statewide, top 60%, 425 students, 42% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $130k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.